Double-Dip Recession?
What is it? How likely is it to happen? What will it mean to you?
The news is full of talk of a double-dip recession and significantly higher inflation and interest rates - even talk of as much as 8%. We thought we would ask Leslie Spears with his fifty years commercial experience and over thirty-five in the Salon Business to share his thoughts on the subject.
Firstly, the definition of recession is: “two consecutive quarters of the year showing negative growth for a country’s economy” [1].
The way to think about a recession is ‘Shape and Impact’. Let’s deal with the Shape first. You only know what the actual shape is after the event, however Leslie and I find it very interesting to watch a recession developing and the likely happenings and impact on our customers and our businesses.
The Three Shapes
 |
The "V" recession. A quick fall or fairly sharp decline; a short-time baseline, say, six to eight months and a fairly fast climb out. |
 |
The "U" shape recession. Sharp decline; then crawling along the base for quite some time, say, eight months up to two years or longer. The current recession lasted for 18 months [2]. |
|
|
The "W" recession: covers the decline; the ‘first trough’, followed by a pick-up period and then another trough and ultimately the climb out. |
Much of the western world's economic growth is driven by consumer spending and debt ratios which are influenced by facts and emotions. Individuals discovering their total debts, whether they can meet their monthly debt commitments; how much spending money do they have after they have paid their commitments and their job insecurity or security.
Going into this recession, individuals in the United Kingdom had one of the highest ratios of personal debt to their income in the developed world. The government and the banks were not much better. At one stage the government was lending Northern Rock around £30 billion [3] and then came NatWest and others and the money the Government used to support them was borrowed, driving up the Government’s total borrowing .
How did the government do in July 2010?
|
£927.4 Billion (£927,400,000,000) |
|
£3.9 Billion (£3,900,000,000) |
|
£500 Million |
|
3.1% |
Note: all figures above are sourced at [4]. This is our interpretation of the figures, but as there are different variations of them such as temporary effects of financial interventions, we have contacted the government for clarification. We haven't yet received a reply. (A billion is 1000 million. CPI is excluding mortgage payments).
In a nutshell, Leslie’s advice is: When the fear factor is high and the feel good factor is low people spend less. Banks should not lend to businesses they class as high risk. They will demand the highest interest rates they can get when they do lend, especially from small to medium size businesses plus they will want personal guarantees as well as business guarantees.
Impact for 2010/2011? "Double Dip Amber Alert! Prepare for the worst without reducing your competitive edge and you err on the smart side". Daily monitor; takings, cash flow and what you owe. "When the going gets tougher the tough get smarter". Important: Please, please remember that more businesses are seriously damaged or go bust coming out of a recession than during it.
“Education means choice. When you only know how to do something
one way, you can only do it...one way.”
Leslie Spears
Also, following on from this discussion, read Leslie's article "What Are the Two Most Important Words in a Recession?" - available to Touchstone Solutions Delegates and Joy4u.com Subscribers.
Sources:
[1] - BBC news, (2009, January, 23rd). ‘UK in recession as economy slides.’ Retrieved from: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7846266.stm
[2] - Out of recession – but how did we get there and what happens next? Retrieved from: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jan/25/recession-britain-economy-labour
[3] - Rock expects £30bn loan this year. Retrieved from: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7073556.stm
[4] - Office for National Statistics- Public Sector Finances July 2010. Retrieved from: http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/psf.pdf
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